Preseason is well and truly underway, and it won’t be long before we’re talking about the return of CL and our CL ratings. This year, things are a little different in Europe’s premier competition, with the move from a tried-and-true group stage to an entirely new championship format.
In this new system, each team will play eight matches against different opponents, but all 36 CL teams will compete in the same group table. The top 16 teams will advance directly to the round of 16, while teams ranked 9-24 will have to play an additional knockout match to book their place in the next round. Overall, this should make for a new and exciting tournament! So let’s take a look at some of our biggest CL predictions for the 2024/25 season.
Important dates to watch out for
Dams: From August 20 to 28. The final qualifying round will take place at the end of August, when we will finally know the identity of the 36 teams participating in this year’s competition. The play-offs will take place over two matches, which will be played on August 20 and 21 and August 27 and 28.
League stage: The championship phase will begin on September 17, 2024 and continue until January 29, 2025. This is when all 36 teams will play their assigned eight matches, with points all recorded in the same shared standings.
League phase draw: The draw for the championship stage will take place on August 29.
1st day: September 17-19
2nd day: October 1-2
3rd day: October 22-23
4th day: November 5-6
5th day: November 26-27
6th day: December 10-11
7th day: January 21-22
8th day: January 29
Knockout phase: Once the last league match is played on January 29, we will move on to the round of 16 of the competition. It will start with the round of 16, when the teams finishing 9th at 24th of the ranking will compete over two legs to reserve their place in the round of 16 alongside the teams who finished 1st at 8th.
Preliminary draw: The draw for the round of 16 will take place on January 31.
Preliminary knockouts: February 11-12 and February 18-19
Main knockout draw: The draw for the round of 16 will take place on February 21.
Round of 16: March 4-5 and March 11-12
Quarter-finals: April 8-9 and April 15-16
Semi-finals: April 29-30 and May 6-7
Final: May 31, 2025
What happened last season in the tournament?
Last season marked the end of the traditional group stage format. We saw Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Real Madrid, Real Sociedad, Atletico Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Manchester City and Barcelona top their respective groups.
In the quarterfinals, Borussia Dortmund beat Atletico Madrid, PSG eliminated Barcelona, Bayern Munich beat Arsenal and Real Madrid beat Man City. It was Real Madrid and Dortmund who ultimately qualified for the final, with Los Blancos lifting the trophy again after a 2-0 victory, thanks to goals from Vinicius Jr and Dani Carvajal.
But what will happen this season? Our first CL predictions
- Real Madrid will fall in the round of 16
That’s right! We predict that the favorites to win the entire competition won’t even reach the quarterfinals this year. Despite the presence of Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Jr, Luka Modric, Federico Valverde and a certain Mr. Kylian Mbappe, we feel the start of a surprise in the CL 2024/25. For many years, Real Madrid have defied expectations and snatched victories from defeat when they simply had no right to do so. They have a certain unbeatable and timeless aura in European competitions, so it is difficult to consider them big favorites to win another trophy. However, Los Blancos are such huge favorites this season and have so many world-class players in every position that it seems scripted that they are destined to collapse unexpectedly.
- Bayern Munich is one to watch
So, if Real Madrid fail to achieve back-to-back CL wins, then who will take home the trophy in 2025? Manchester City? Barcelona? Arsenal? Liverpool? No, no, no, no and no.
They last won it in 2020 and have only reached the final twice in the last 12 years, but we’re backing Bayern Munich to pull off a surprise European victory next year. And it would also be a real surprise; Bayern didn’t even win their own national championship last season! Although Vincent Kompany’s appointment was seen as a joke, with a number of top managers reportedly giving Bayern a miss, he could prove many people wrong next season.
Bayern are assured of a front-foot style of play under the Belgian legend and have already made a sensational signing in Michael Olise. Put him in the frontline alongside Harry Kane, Jamal Musiala, Leroy Sane and Serge Gnabry, and you have a pretty devastating attacking force. If Bayern can land a few more quality signings between now and the start of the season, they could have a real chance of becoming a dark horse in 2025.
- Aston Villa to eliminate big name
Of course, every team is making their debut in the new CL format, but there are also four teams who have never participated in the competition since the group stage was introduced. Aston Villa is one of these teams, alongside Bologna, Brest and Girona. Villa earned their place in the tournament by finishing fourth in the PL last time out, beating Tottenham, Manchester United, Newcastle and Chelsea into the final qualifying spot. But it was not a simple coincidence or a flash in the pan.
Unai Emery is building something big at Birmingham, with a core of young and talented players. Emiliano Martinez is widely regarded as one of the best goalkeepers in the world, having won three major international trophies in recent years. Ollie Watkins was England’s semi-final hero with his goal off the bench against the Netherlands. They also signed Amadou Onana, Jaden Philogene, Ross Barkley, Samuel Iling-Junior and Ian Maatsen this summer, with more signings to come.
We’re not saying the Villans will win it all, but we can see them surprising a few people and making their way to the round of 16 before sending one of the big teams home early.
- Kylian Mbappé against Paris Saint-Germain
In the new format, the 36 teams will be divided into four seeds. Each team will then be drawn against two other teams from each pot, playing one at home and one away. That makes a total of eight group stage matches for each team, four at home and four away. As winners of La Liga and Ligue 1, Real Madrid and PSG will both be in Pot 1 for the top seeds this season. This means that even though they are in the same pot, they have a good chance of facing each other, setting up a potential Kylian Mbappe reunion at PSG.
After leaving the Parisians on a free transfer this summer, it seems fitting that Madrid and PSG will face each other this season and that Mbappé will be at the center of things. But in which direction will this go? It seems Mbappe is destined to score a hat-trick against his former club or receive an early red card against them. Either way, we have to see this showdown!
Betting strategies for the new CL season
A new competition format comes with a new set of betting strategies. The old group stages are gone and the new group stage is here. But what does this mean for betting on the tournament?
League Stage Betting Tips
The main change in betting will come during the league stage. Instead of betting on which teams will top their group, you will instead bet on their place in the rankings. This could provide additional value due to the increase in the number of final positions. For example, in the old group stage, teams could finish first, second, third or fourth. Now teams could finish anywhere between first and thirty-sixth place. If you feel brave enough to bet on a team’s exact final position, then you could get some incredible value. Alternatively, you can bet on whether a team will finish in the top eight and gain automatic qualification to the main round of 16, or if they will head to the preliminary round of 16. Remember, cohesive teams will reign supreme in this new format, across a greater number of matches and a wider range of opponents.
Tips for betting on top scorers
Speaking of the Round of 16, this could also present an interesting change in the value of top scorer bets. In previous seasons, it was often the big names who won the Golden Boot, such as Kylian Mbappe, Harry Kane, Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. However, all that could change this season. Starting strikers are now almost guaranteed eight matches in the league stage, opening up the possibility of some underdogs reaching purple scoring form. A hat-trick against a smaller team and suddenly you’re in contention for the Golden Boot. The top eight teams will also advance directly to the round of 16, while teams ranked 9th at 24th will play in the preliminaries. This means that some attackers could even play an extra match!
Let’s take a look at an example. Kylian Mbappe plays all of Real Madrid’s matches and reaches the final. He scores a goal every two games. That would total 12 games and six goals for the Frenchman, which would be quite an impressive return. But someone like Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins could easily play eight league stage games, one knockout game and one knockout game, giving him ten games to rack up a fairly high number of goals. Dark Horse’s top scorers could have great value this season.
Tips for betting on the knockout stage
Fortunately, the knockout stage is pretty much the same as it always has been. Once the round of 16 has passed, a draw will take place to determine the table for the round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals and final. Betting on the knockout stage depends on who you think will win the two-legged match and advance to the next round. Of course, betting on surprises and underdogs will always give you better value. But if you want to bet on a favorite, you can always add other elements like first scorer, correct score, yellow cards, shots on target, corners and much more to increase your chances.
The odds may have changed since this article was written and published.
Last updated: 07/24/2024
